Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 6 (Week Ending May 11, 2018)

Kristin Jweda, Senior Energy Pricing Analyst

The sixth week of injection season provided an injection of 106 Bcf, essentially falling in line with the market expectation of 105 Bcf. Some weather outlooks are projecting warmer than normal conditions in the upcoming weeks along with heavy showers over portions of the West and Southeast that are expected to keep demand low. This year’s injection is larger than last year’s 64 Bcf and the five year average at 87 Bcf. Crude oil’s global benchmark is around $80 per barrel. If the rise continues, this would be the highest price since 2014.

Current working natural gas inventories stands at 1,538Bcf. This figure is 821 Bcf (34.8%) less than this time last year and 501 Bcf (24.6%) below the five year average.

The June 2018 NYMEX Futures price was $2.790-2.8/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since increased to $2.82/MMBtu.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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