Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 4 (Week Ending April 28, 2017)

Cliff McGaha, Energy Markets Analyst

As predicted from the previous report, the build for Week 4 of injection season came in slimmer at 67 Bcf, but still surpassed market expectations of 61 Bcf while coming up short of last year’s injection of 73 Bcf. Warmer weather in the majority of the Southeastern U.S. was a contributing factor to the diminished build, but prolonged strains of cooler patterns are slated to stick around in Eastern regions, even as forecasters admit they are unsure of the full duration of said trends. These cool anomalies, along with slightly warmer trends in the center of the country and the Rockies, haven’t provided any sort of surprises for this week’s injection, and it looks as though that will continue through next week as well.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 2,256 Bcf. This figure is 359 Bcf (13.7%) less than this time last year and 303 Bcf (15.5%) above the five year average.

The June 2017 NYMEX Future remained steady at $3.22/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since fallen to $3.20/MMBtu following the report.


Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.


The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:


The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.



The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 


Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 


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