Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 30 (Week Ending October 27, 2017)

Cliff McGaha, Energy Markets Analyst

Fall is in full swing, and the robust builds kept rolling. Today, the EIA reported a net inflow of 65 Bcf for the final week of Injection Season – slightly bearish compared to the market expectation of 62 Bcf. Last year, 73 Bcf was injected, and the five year average stands at 66 Bcf. Shifting long-term weather models have continued to point toward an increasingly cold winter, though near-term outlooks favor normal-to-warm weather in key heating demand markets. Despite the formality of beginning Withdrawal Season, we should see a final push above the 3.8 Tcf mark in the coming weeks.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,775 Bcf. This figure is 180 Bcf (4.8%) less than this time last year and 41 Bcf (1.1%) below the five year average.

The December 2017 NYMEX Future was elevated at $2.92/MmBTU, but despite the bearish report, continued to climb to just over $2.95/MmBTU.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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