Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 22 (Week Ending September 1, 2017)

Jessica Abonce, Energy Pricing Manager

Today’s market injection was slightly higher than the average expectation that many traders had of 64 Bcf. Market injection of 65 Bcf and the minimal impact that Hurricane Harvey had over the total demand of Natural Gas has made the market have a bearish undertone. The combination of the power outages in TX, the expected cooling temperatures for September and October, and the lower exports that were delivered to Mexico are considered to be the main reasons for the current downward market trend. Natural gas exports through the Sabine Pass terminal are expected to rebound by next week. Demand is also expected to fall in Florida as Hurricane Irma is predicted to make an arrival by early Saturday. Weather forecasts are calling for cooler weather for the East and Central US for the near six – to ten day forecast.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,220 Bcf which is within the five-year historical range. This figure is 212 Bcf (6.2%) less than this time last year and 15 Bcf (0.5%) above the five year average of 3,205 Bcf.

The October 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.97/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since increased to $2.99/MMBtu following the EIA report.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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