Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 19 (Week Ending August 11, 2017)

Jessica Abonce, Energy Pricing Manager

Market expectation was 49 Bcf and the actual came in at 53 Bcf. This injection was above some of the estimates that were in the range of 35- 50 Bcf and was above the five- year average of 50 Bcf. The market went downward when the injection came out, but quickly increased thanks to a revision to the data of working gas during the six week period of June 30th- August 4th. There was an average of 10 Bcf reduction based on the reclassification of working gas to base that reduced the working gas from 3,038 Bcf to 3,029 Bcf on last week’ report. Weather forecasts are predicting cooler temperatures trends for the Eastern US for late next week and the last several days of August. Is also expected to be warm to hot in many large areas of the country in the next seven days that should drive up the demand of Natural Gas.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,082 Bcf. This figure is 254 Bcf (7.6%) less than this time last year and 55 Bcf (1.8%) above the five year average.

The September 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.89/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since increased to $2.92/MMBtu following the EIA report.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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