Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 17 (Week Ending July 28, 2017)

Jessica Abonce, Energy Pricing Manager

Market expectation was 21 Bcf and the injection report came in slightly under at 20 Bcf. Last year only 3 Bcf was injected and the five- year average stands at 44 Bcf. The market is flat with a slight bullish feel as we are still behind the five year average of 44 Bcf, and the surplus versus the five year average has fallen by 210 Bcf over the past 13 weeks. There is at least 2 Bcf/d of undersupply in the market per some traders estimates.

Weather forecasts are also calling for a flat market as much of the country is on the cool to slight above normal temperatures with no major changes noted in the future forecast. East Coast is expected to stay slightly cooler than normal, the Midwest is flat to slightly warmer and the West and South have no significant changes noted in their forecasts.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,010 Bcf which is within the five-year historical range. This figure is 279 Bcf (8.5%) less than this time last year and 87 Bcf (3%) above the five year average of 2,923.

The September 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.829/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since decreased to $2.801/MMBtu following the EIA report.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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