Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 14 (Week Ending July 7, 2017)

Mitch Marzuola, Energy Pricing Analyst

Market expectation was 59 Bcf which was slightly higher than the actual injection of 57 Bcf. The market is leaning to be slightly bullish, but the injection number was not a surprise to many traders (Reuters sample had a range of +43 Bcf to +65 Bcf). Last year we had an injection of 61 Bcf and the five year average stands at 72 Bcf. Current weather forecasts are predicting hot temperatures across the US for the next two weeks, and this can cause the cumulative storage build injections to stay lower than the five year average of 143 Bcf for July.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 2,945 Bcf. This figure is 289 Bcf (8.9%) less than this time last year and 172 Bcf (6.2%) above the five year average.

The August 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.98/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since elevated to $3.00/MMBtu following the EIA report.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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