Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Week 13 (Week Ending June 30, 2017)

Mitch Marzuola, Energy Pricing Analyst

This morning’s rally took a short tumble after the EIA-reported net change of 72 Bcf exceeded the market expectation of 64 Bcf. After nearly doubling last year’s value of 38 Bcf and outpacing the five-year average of 66 Bcf, the injection marks yet another week of bearish activity for the season as weather models in Texas and the Northeast trended slightly cooler than normal. This injection may have come in larger than expected when compared to previous values, but surplus against the five-year average continues to thin out over each week. Recent pushes for LNG exports overseas continue to be a notable fundamental aspect to watch as well.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 2,888 Bcf. This figure is 285 Bcf (9.0%) less than this time last year and 187 Bcf (6.9%) above the five year average.

The August 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $2.92/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since dropped to $2.88/MMBtu following the EIA report.

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Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

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The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

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The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

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The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years. 

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Finally, the graphic below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service. 

Current Week's Outlook
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Future Outlook
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