Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Through Week 12 (Week Ending June 19, 2015)

Phillip T. Golden
Director of Product and Risk Management

The injection report today showed a build of 75 BCF, while the market was expecting an injection of 75 BCF. While summer is officially here, weather in the major population centers is expected to cool in the near term with a call for more heat around the July 4th holiday weekend. As of today’s injection report, we will only need to average injections of 67 BCF/week to reach the storage levels forecasted by the EIA.

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An Analysis of FERC’s Order Approving PJM’s Capacity Performance Product

Phillip T. Golden
Director of Product and Risk Management

On June 9, 2015, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commision (FERC) approved a filing made by PJM to make significant changes to the existing capacity market. These changes are designed to improve capacity performance and ensure that there is sufficient generation available to meet electricity demand even If an event similar to the Winter 2013-2014 Polar Vortex was to re-occur. The net impact to customers is likely to be an increase in capacity costs starting potentially with the June 2016 Planning Year, although the full impact will likely not be felt until June 2018.

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Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Through Week 11 (Week Ending June 12, 2015)

Phillip T. Golden
Director of Product and Risk Management

The injection report today showed a build of 89 BCF, on the low end of expectations which ranged from 87-94 BCF The market was down about $0.02/MMBtu before the storage report and has softened just a little bit as of 9:35 CPT this morning, now down $0.03/MMBtu. With heat expected to linger for the rest of the month, the bears may be out of steam, but there is not enough demand to fuel a bull run either. The market is likely to move sideways for the next week barring a significant weather event. As of today’s injection report, we will only need to average injections of 67 BCF/week to reach the storage levels forecasted by the EIA. However, we have been seeing week over week declines in both production and rig counts, so while this goal sounds easily attainable, current market conditions may not support reaching the levels forecasted by the EIA.

Week11 5

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Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Through Week 10 (Week Ending June 5, 2015)

Phillip T. Golden
Director of Product and Risk Management

The injection report today showed a build of 111 BCF, right in line with market expectations of 112 BCF The market was down about $0.01/MMBtu before the storage report and has softened just a little bit as of 9:40 this morning, now down $0.03/MMBtu as of 9:40 a.m. CST. The above normal temperatures forecasted for this coming weekend and then into next week are likely to provide some support, but a small correction today is likely. As of today’s injection report, we will only need to average injections of 68 BCF/week to reach the storage levels forecasted by the EIA.

Week10 5

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Natural Gas Storage Report: Injection Season Through Week 9 (Week Ending May 29, 2015)

Phillip T. Golden
Director of Product and Risk Management

The injection report today showed a build of 132 BCF, a bearish number as the market was expecting closer to a 125 BCF addition. However, the market does not seem to have reacted, as it is trading pretty much flat to where it was before the storage report came out, suggesting that traders expected a bearish number. To reach the storage levels projected by the EIA, we would need to average only 70 BCF/week.

Week9 4

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